tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post375334800930253287..comments2022-01-25T21:29:32.895-08:00Comments on San Diego home price index: San Diego HPI - June '08Namelesshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12572983451955998231noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-72631456310138266052008-08-17T07:21:00.000-07:002008-08-17T07:21:00.000-07:00sd sci,Could you easily split Carlsbad and Encinit...sd sci,<BR/><BR/>Could you easily split Carlsbad and Encinitas? I would love to see and share that data with the Encinitas City Council.<BR/><BR/>Encinitas has justified real estate transactions with the "real estate always goes up" paradigm. They also set their revenue projections based on that idea.<BR/><BR/>I began warning the city in 2004 about this error, and at first the warnings were totally dismissed and ignored. Now, they hold the view that Encinitas will be immune from a downturn. <BR/><BR/>So, seeing that data could help set public policy. (they will dismiss anything that includes Carlsbad). <BR/><BR/>Hoping you can help.<BR/><BR/>www.encinitastaxpayers.orgK. C.https://www.blogger.com/profile/02817230482209177049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-70118326846756791462008-07-22T13:14:00.000-07:002008-07-22T13:14:00.000-07:00it seems that a house price to income ratio of ~4 ...<I>it seems that a house price to income ratio of ~4 reflects stability (while the national level is ~3 (sunshine tax))</I> <BR/><BR/>Price to income ratio isn't a great measure of affordability. I prefer the ratio of mortgage payments to income, or mortgage payments to rent.<BR/><BR/>http://piggington.com/images/explainerhomeprices.jpg<BR/><BR/>House prices rose considerably between 2000 and 2003, because we entered 2000 with 9% mortgage rates and by 2003 rates were around 5%. Payments remained almost flat.<BR/><BR/>http://bp0.blogger.com/_F-Z51q1pTp8/R8osDocOZKI/AAAAAAAAADk/4pvLcQP0R_Q/s1600-h/tiers-0208.pngNamelesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12572983451955998231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-2135560159831745402008-07-21T18:58:00.000-07:002008-07-21T18:58:00.000-07:00Hi again, "In 97, after 6 years of foreclosure-dr...Hi again, <BR/><BR/>"In 97, after 6 years of foreclosure-driven declines, things were most likely underpriced."<BR/><BR/>I would actually argue that the bubble started in yr 2000, so by 2002 prices were already bubbleicious. <BR/><BR/>Is the SD market that much different from the LA market? Is there historical data for the SD market like in the below graph?<BR/><BR/>If you look at CR's post (here: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/06/update-ratio-median-house-price-to.html)<BR/><BR/>It lacks SD data, but using LA as a substitute, it seems that a house price to income ratio of ~4 reflects stability (while the national level is ~3 (sunshine tax)), and this was the level in ~1997.<BR/><BR/>Thanks again,<BR/>FreedomCMUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13492764672321753321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-45547915989773073762008-07-21T12:38:00.000-07:002008-07-21T12:38:00.000-07:00Great work!It's interesting to see all the lines c...Great work!<BR/><BR/>It's interesting to see all the lines compress into one cluster around 160% to 180% - the bigger the bubble gains the bigger the loss later.<BR/><BR/>It's worth noting that the actual differences in the 160-180 range aren't necessarily significant, since the chart depends on when you peg the starting values (2000 in this case apparently). Choose 2001 and certain areas would be much worse or better (ex. CV). This is partly because each price range and region took off at slightly different times and using different loan mixes.<BR/><BR/>In the same way, alt-A's reset in a very different set of years than subprimes and will skew a lot of comparisons time-wise.<BR/><BR/>Long-term in the future, it's hard to peg what fair prices are because it depends on how greedy people are going to be in the next 5-15 years. 2001 isn't a bad guess if you assume some amount of persistent greed in the market. But fair value does have a chance of getting in line with affordability again if the economy breaks this trend, and that means pre-2001 prices.Bmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14369640672645767782noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-64453459747652002312008-07-20T23:16:00.000-07:002008-07-20T23:16:00.000-07:00It seems 54-94 (blue) had 100% outperformed CV-4S-...<I>It seems 54-94 (blue) had 100% outperformed CV-4S-Scripps (yellow). Do I inteprete it correctly? How would it be possible?</I><BR/><BR/>The second graph is scaled to Jul-00 as 100%.<BR/>Between Jul-00 and Jan-06 a typical house in 54-94 area appreciated from ~170k to ~450k (up 170%). At the same time, a typical house in CV-4S area appreciated from 510k to 940k (up 85%).Namelesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12572983451955998231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-21351346299662758652008-07-20T18:14:00.000-07:002008-07-20T18:14:00.000-07:00Thanks SD Scientist, nice work!A little confusion ...Thanks SD Scientist, nice work!<BR/><BR/>A little confusion here if just looking at the period bewteen Jan-01 to Jan-06 (peak). It seems 54-94 (blue) had 100% outperformed CV-4S-Scripps (yellow). Do I inteprete it correctly? How would it be possible?newhomeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13727237774570938833noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-82254655386060068962008-07-20T12:56:00.000-07:002008-07-20T12:56:00.000-07:00why not 97, when they were half (CS75 v CS150 in 0...<I>why not 97, when they were half (CS75 v CS150 in 02)?</I><BR/><BR/>In 97, after 6 years of foreclosure-driven declines, things were most likely underpriced.<BR/><BR/><I>Is that based on actual transactions in those areas? I haven't seen much trading there.</I><BR/><BR/>Yes, it's all based on actual closed transactions.Namelesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12572983451955998231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-2128677601069727452008-07-20T07:37:00.000-07:002008-07-20T07:37:00.000-07:00That really pisses me off to see prices actually r...That really pisses me off to see prices actually rising in the beach areas.<BR/><BR/>Is that based on actual transactions in those areas? I haven't seen much trading there.W.C. Varoneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17663570682958847976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-47759553857140084682008-07-19T12:40:00.000-07:002008-07-19T12:40:00.000-07:00why do you think that things were reasonably price...why do you think that things were reasonably priced in 02?<BR/><BR/>why not 97, when they were half (CS75 v CS150 in 02)?<BR/><BR/><BR/>FreedomCMUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13492764672321753321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5806967049314241807.post-54249062368698688222008-07-02T15:24:00.000-07:002008-07-02T15:24:00.000-07:00so do you think that prices in these higher price ...so do you think that prices in these higher price areas are going to drop 30-40% or do you think this is the premium that comes with living there?<BR/><BR/>Very interesting blog -- I'll get others to visit.Myitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08080469012899852919noreply@blogger.com