Friday, October 9, 2009
Temecula update
Unlike San Diego, the overhang of delinquent inventory in Temecula is so heavy that the summer rally was only able to stabilize prices for a while:
Friday, October 2, 2009
According to my calculations, city average index is now up slightly year-over-year:
The official July Case-Shiller read came in at 150.99, in agreement with my expectations. The forecast is 154.5 for August, 158.0 for September, ~160 for October. At this point I don't expect any official reads indicating month-to-month declines before the end of the year (since the October number comes out around Christmas).
I have to caution against identifying this dynamics as genuine recovery, there's quite a bit of nonmarket stuff going on (the first-time-buyer tax credit, "shadow inventory", some degree of mortgage interest rate manipulation by the Fed), but the market appears to be robust and this uptrend has gone far beyond any seasonal fluctuations.
The official July Case-Shiller read came in at 150.99, in agreement with my expectations. The forecast is 154.5 for August, 158.0 for September, ~160 for October. At this point I don't expect any official reads indicating month-to-month declines before the end of the year (since the October number comes out around Christmas).
I have to caution against identifying this dynamics as genuine recovery, there's quite a bit of nonmarket stuff going on (the first-time-buyer tax credit, "shadow inventory", some degree of mortgage interest rate manipulation by the Fed), but the market appears to be robust and this uptrend has gone far beyond any seasonal fluctuations.
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