Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Mandatory election post

Every blogger seems to have something to say about our recent election. Here's my try.

This is how different parts of San Diego County voted on November 4th.


NeighborhoodVotes for McCainVotes for Obama% for Obama% Yes on Prop 8
Alpine4202193931.6%69.4%
Ballena31013330.0%69.4%
Bonita2748242746.9%62.6%
Bonsall69035834.2%65.9%
Borrego Springs47751852.1%56.3%
Bostonia3786275542.1%66.3%
Boulevard34116432.5%72.8%
Buena1845139043.0%62.0%
Campo41415927.7%77.4%
Carlsbad216372184350.2%51.2%
Centre City1893416568.8%36.5%
Chollas Park716457186.5%65.0%
Chula Vista246753631859.5%62.5%
City Heights1059328475.6%49.9%
Clairemont E6240773155.3%51.8%
Clairemont N4458599357.3%47.7%
Clairemont S3605536359.8%43.3%
Coronado4224309542.3%54.8%
Crest84043734.2%69.2%
Dehesa19513240.4%63.5%
Del Dios2372215147.6%58.1%
Del Mar812143963.9%32.6%
Del Mar Heights5604836259.9%40.3%
Descanso113447429.5%70.1%
El Cajon130041132446.5%63.9%
Elfin Forest12410445.6%55.3%
Encanto E2857579067.0%68.7%
Encanto W1660635679.3%66.5%
Encinitas99811653862.4%38.3%
Escondido186351571145.7%64.1%
Fairbanks Ranch50325033.2%58.7%
Fallbrook8732481635.5%68.1%
Felicita Park89249935.9%62.0%
Foothill28721943.3%60.6%
Golden Hill413209883.6%30.7%
Harbison Canyon30114732.8%63.2%
Harbor74564346.3%50.1%
Helix3030275247.6%55.8%
Hidden Meadows2131107633.6%69.1%
Hillcrest1481779184.0%16.4%
Imperial Beach2553351157.9%55.9%
Jacumba587355.7%65.6%
Jamacha66137336.1%67.0%
Jamul1963113936.7%66.7%
Julian78950439.0%60.1%
La Jolla6467888657.9%40.0%
La Mesa91331173056.2%50.7%
La Playa1929200451.0%47.9%
Lake Morena33115331.6%71.4%
Lake San Marcos151592738.0%65.9%
Lakeside7590386833.8%69.0%
Lakeview Flinn3491163431.9%70.4%
Lemon Grove2919411458.5%61.4%
Lincoln Acres17231965.0%65.7%
Linda Vista2787448861.7%48.9%
Loma Portal2668340856.1%44.9%
Lomas Santa Fe23131457.6%36.8%
Middletown1863503073.0%28.1%
Midway Old Town1498273464.6%40.0%
Mira Mesa94641122054.2%57.2%
Mission Bay659108762.3%33.8%
Mission Hills1286322071.5%27.7%
Mission Valley1459296667.0%35.1%
Montezuma2004452669.3%33.8%
Montgomery29644960.3%44.6%
National City3273606564.9%65.9%
Navajo6324723853.4%50.5%
Nestor3488646064.9%65.0%
Normal Heights32271006375.7%34.4%
North Park23221183483.6%23.5%
Oak Grove26818841.2%68.1%
Ocean Beach2217632874.1%26.9%
Oceanside253852633450.9%59.5%
Otay2170365562.7%66.4%
Pacific Beach53901102167.2%31.6%
Pala5711566.9%59.7%
Paradise Hills3374480858.8%68.4%
Pauma Valley17420554.1%62.9%
Pomerado8297883051.6%52.1%
Potrero16114046.5%75.1%
Poway11416792041.0%60.0%
Rainbow28720041.1%65.7%
Ramona8215388632.1%68.0%
Ranchita15610941.1%64.4%
Rancho Bernardo9423862547.8%57.4%
Rancho El Cajon145363730.5%72.3%
Rancho Santa Fe165283733.6%57.7%
Rho Monserate43224736.4%72.1%
Rho Penasquitos149721647552.4%52.7%
Rincon D Diablo2045118836.7%64.4%
Rock Springs43126738.3%65.3%
Rolando Redwood3380757569.1%51.4%
San Carlos5361586352.2%51.7%
San Marcos114461118149.4%59.8%
San Ysidro1709421771.2%65.4%
Santee12007786939.6%62.7%
Se San Diego E339211686.2%65.4%
Se San Diego W289183886.4%61.0%
Serra Mesa3130384555.1%52.0%
Solana Beach2571344557.3%41.1%
South Park1400562880.1%25.2%
Spring Valley7093875655.2%64.1%
Sweetwater40541550.6%66.6%
Tierrasanta4455543755.0%48.2%
University N38121190475.7%29.7%
University S2791406359.3%43.8%
Valle De Oro6877450639.6%63.6%
Valley Center3869180631.8%70.2%
Vista112081093449.4%60.8%
Vista Acres72455643.4%61.6%
Whispering Palms80448437.6%56.1%
Yaqui Wells616451.2%57.3%




All numbers come from here.


Rural areas are pro-McCain, central San Diego neighborhoods (e.g. Golden Hill, South Park) are heavily pro-Obama. Hillcrest and North Park favor Obama 5 to 1. In Fairbanks Ranch and Rancho Santa Fe, 67% of votes went for McCain, but neighboring Del Mar Heights and Solana Beach vote 57-59% for Obama. (Carmel Valley is probably part of Del Mar Heights in their definition)

Hillcrest is the most liberal, deep East County (Campo, Descanso, Boulevard) is the most conservative. Chollas Park, Encanto, San Ysidro, National City vote for Obama and Yes on 8 at the same time.

Next, I'll try to build a map. I'll either have to find 2008 precinct definitions or adapt 2006 definitions somehow.

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