Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Monday, September 15, 2008

Good schools vs bad schools

This is only marginally related to the main topic of my blog.

When I do tiered price analysis, I define "top tier" as a set of desirable geographical areas with low crime and good schools. But what makes good schools good?

This is a plot of API scores of 450 elementary schools in San Diego County against average education level of all parents of students in these schools. Average parent education level is defined in such a way that it would be 5 if every student in a school had at least one parent who spent any time in a graduate school; it would be 1 if no one in the school had a single parent who managed to graduate from high school.

It seems that parent education is a strong predictor of school ratings. On the other hand, school district itself has almost no say.

All numbers come from here

Monday, September 1, 2008

San Diego HPI - August '08

City average: 35.1% off the peak
Top tier: 14.3% off the peak
Middle tier: 35.3% off the peak
Bottom tier: 44.1% off the peak

Almost all regions are showing declines again. City average is down 2% month-to-month, top tier is at the lowest level since 2004, and 54-94 geo finally went below 50% off the peak.

Price changes since 2000: