Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Saturday, August 1, 2009

July '09

City average: 39.1% off the peak, 57.9% above Dec 1999
Top tier: 20.1% off the peak, 80.1% above Dec 1999
Middle tier: 39.9% off the peak, 55.3% above Dec 1999
Bottom tier: 50.9% off the peak, 42.5% above Dec 1999

The market is really heating up. The overall city index is up 5% in one month, which is the highest rate of change in the recent history, even exceeding records set during the spring of 2004.

There's one caveat, though - this exponential-looking growth is partly caused by a change in sales structure: the ratio of top tier sales to middle tier sales seems to be up about 20% compared with the previous month. Middle tier by itself is up "only" 3%. It may be an artifact in my data, since some sales may not yet be reported yet, maybe top tier sales are reported faster. I'll update charts and numbers when late-reporters become available.

Also, it's already August and the frenzy may subside in a month or two.

Here's my forecast of the official Case-Shiller index for the next three months:

I've rescaled the "SDHPI" curve to match up exactly with last month's official reading.

Final point is less certain since I need August sales to calculate it precisely - but it should be roughly in that area.