Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Thursday, May 1, 2008


City average: 30.2% off the peak, August '03
Top tier: 12.6% off the peak, May '04
Middle tier: 31.4% off the peak, July '03
Bottom tier: 37.4% off the peak, April '03

Definite signs of (temporary?) stabilization everywhere except the very low end. Clairemont/Mira Mesa and Carmel Valley/4S are up slightly. Eastlake/Otay Ranch only lost 0.5%. Still a lot of hurt in deep subprime land: southwest (west Chula Vista, Imperial Beach) and 54-94 corridor are down another 3% month to month. A typical house bought in 54-94 corridor (National City, Logan Heights, Encanto) at the peak in April '06 is now worth less than 58% of its purchase price.

This is how house values are distributed

For example, a house valued at $600,000 is worth more than 75% of all detached houses in the county.

Note: this graph does not account for new construction (it assumes that all houses have been around forever).

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