Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Sunday, February 1, 2009

San Diego HPI - January '09

City average: 43.6% off the peak, 44.1% above December 1999 (predicted February '09 Case-Shiller for San Diego: 144.1)
Top tier: 21.9% off the peak, 72.6% above December 1999
Middle tier: 43.0% off the peak, 45.3% above December 1999
Bottom tier: 49.0% off the peak, 46.7% above December 1999

Reminder - tier & zone definitions:

Top tier: Carlsbad, Encinitas, Cardiff, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Rancho Santa Fe, Carmel Valley, La Jolla, University City (92122), Pacific Beach, Ocean Beach/Sunset Cliffs (92107), Point Loma (92106), Mission Hills/Hillcrest (92103), Coronado, Rancho Bernardo (92127,92128) (including 4S Ranch, Del Sur, Santaluz), Carmel Mountain Ranch, Sabre Springs, Rancho Penasquitos, Scripps Ranch, Poway

Bottom tier: Chula Vista west of 805 (91910 and 91911), San Ysidro, Otay Mesa, Imperial Beach, National City, Logan Heights, Encanto, Lemon Grove, Spring Valley, Paradise Hills; Southeast San Diego (92102,92105,92115); Central El Cajon (92020); Oceanside; Vista north of 78 (92083,92084)

Middle tier: everything that's not included in either top or bottom tier

"RB, PQ": 92127 excluding 4S Ranch/Del Sur/Santaluz/Crosby/etc., 92128, 92129
"North of 78": 92083, 92084, 92056, 92057
"Southwest": Chula Vista west of 805, San Ysidro, Otay Mesa, Imperial Beach
"Southeast": Chula Vista east of 805 (91913, 91914, 91915)
"54-94": National City, Logan Heights, Encanto, Lemon Grove, Paradise Hills


august92618 said...

the 3rd figure has data only until 2008-august.

last year you forecast the bottom in february 09, based on your foundamental analysis. what's your forecast now?

SD Scientist said...

You're right, sorry!

I think that Feb '09 bottom in two lower tiers is still possible. We would be at the bottom for sure if not for recession.

Real estate looks attractive from the fundamental standpoint (low prices, low interest rates, not to mention a $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers). Will this attractiveness overcome negative consumer sentiment? We'll see in a couple months.

The top tier will have to wait for the stock market to recover. Notice that the top tier dropped in November-December in response to late September stock market crash. That's where people with fat 401k's and stock portfolios shop.

Of course, it's all connected - if official Case-Shiller numbers start showing month-to-month appreciation, stock market will quickly respond.