Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Thursday, March 26, 2009

No January bottom

So far it looks like the city will drop another 2-3% in March.

2 comments:

august92618 said...

I have a question regarding CSI methodology. I know CSI is based on sale-pairs of same houses, thus it is better than regular median. The question is: does each sale-pair has an equal weight in the index? if there are more sale-pairs in one location (e.g. oceanside) than in another (e.g. CV), will the CSI index be more heavily influenced by the first location? If this is true, the CSI is also biased by sale mixed like plain median, just in a different way.

SD Scientist said...

Standard Case-Shiller methodology assigns a weight to each pair that is equal to the first sale price. This makes them slightly biased towards high-end properties. I don't do that, I give the same initial weight to all pairs. Then there are some further weight adjustments.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SPCS_MetroArea_HomePrices_Methodology.pdf

In either case, if Oceanside is selling and Carmel Valley is stagnant, that will in fact depress the city average.