Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Sunday, January 20, 2008

December 2007 data

Countywide, as of December, we're 22.5% off the peak:

My numbers are 3 months ahead of Case-Shiller. The official Case-Shiller for October is 13.1% off the peak and it really reflects the situation as of September, because their October numbers are averages of August through October. We had a 9% decline in 3 months.

Not every area is 22% down, though:

This plot will help explain why. It shows relative appreciation vs. July of 2000.

This is not to say that "Coast" and other upscale areas don't need to fall. Of the two causes of the housing bubble (speculative/investment buying and subprime) they were spared one and it kept prices relatively sane. Yet, a 15-20% drop is warranted just to get prices back to 2003 levels (most other areas are already closing in on 2003 levels fast). Besides, jumbo mortgages are more expensive and harder to come by than in 2003.

Area definitions:

"Southeast": Bonita (91902), Eastlake, Otay Ranch (91913, 91914, 91915)
"Southwest": old Chula Vista (91910, 91911), Nestor (92154), Imperial Beach (91932), San Ysidro (92173)
"Coast": all coastal towns from Coronado to Oceanside, UTC, Pacific Beach, Ocean Beach.

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