Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Monday, June 1, 2009

May '09

May index is up slightly in all tiers and most sub-areas.

City average: 42.7% off the peak, 48.1% above Dec 1999
Top tier: 21.3% off the peak, 77.3% above Dec 1999
Middle tier: 42.7% off the peak, 47.8% above Dec 1999
Bottom tier: 51.4% off the peak, 41.1% above Dec 1999

Short term, upward movement should continue for at least a couple of months, due to tight MLS inventory and active homebuying among families with school-age children - unless mortgage rates spike past 7% or something else equally bad happens. Things will get more interesting in September-October. There's talk of considerable "shadow inventory" due to foreclosure moratoria & such, I'll try to address this issue in a later post.

Regarding the official Case-Shiller index with 3-month averaging, next month's numbers for San Diego should be flat or slightly down, but May C-S will definitely be up (due to be released July 28, if I'm not mistaken) and so far it looks like June C-S (due end of August) will be up as well.

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