Case-Shiller from 3 months into the future

Thursday, July 2, 2009

June '09

City average: 42.1% off the peak, 50.1% above Dec 1999
Top tier: 21.2% off the peak, 77.3% above Dec 1999
Middle tier: 41.6% off the peak, 50.9% above Dec 1999
Bottom tier: 51.8% off the peak, 40.0% above Dec 1999

City average is up for the third month in a row, so far up 5.7% from March trough.


Jakob said...

Great data. Thoughts on the strength of the top 2 tiers vs the bottom? I recall your previous prediction that the top would continue to decline while the bottom recovered first. Seems that the opposite is happening with the top and middle showing larger gains than the bottom tier.

SD Scientist said...

Top tier may be disproportionally affected by seasonal variations. Virtually all API rank 9 and 10 schools are in the top tier.

There's also an interesting correlation between top tier prices and the stock market. Top tier dropped well below trend in November. Draw an imaginary line connecting October 08 (stock market crash) and May 09 (green shoots). You get a nice smooth trend line.

All three curves should meet eventually.